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40ties, 3 children, full time work, little time.

Friday, August 11, 2006

Cold Logic of Suicide Bombers

I came across an interview, conducted by Harry Kreisler from Institute of International Studies , University of California at Berkeley with Robert A. Pape, professor of Political Science at University of Chicago. After 9/11 Robert A. Pape set out , in the problem oriented approach, to research the phenomenon of suicide bombers using research tools of social sciences. To say that his findings are surprising is an understatement. There are five necessary elements to persuading people to commit suicide in this extreme manner. First element, which is also primary and of overwhelming importance, is that there must be an occupation of the land that the resistance fighters/terrorists value extremely highly. The occupation of Palestine and Lebanon, the stationing of foreign troops on the ground in the Arabian Peninsula after first Gulf War both fit the bill. Second element is, that virtually all other tactics have failed to dislodge the occupier. The kamikaze fighter is firstly a weapon and his death is a secondary , abeit predictable consequence of using that weapon. Third element is that there must be a religious difference between an aggressor/occupier and victim/occupied. The religious difference is useful in presenting the conflict not only as a just war for the sovereignty of the land but also as a war between the most fundamental and basic religious and personal beliefs of the indigenous population. This is why Osama bin Laden uses phrases of "great shaitan " in "the land of the Prophet" and invokes the images of Crusades. There is always an element of urgency - perception that the loss of sovereignty (or defilement) of occupied land is irreversible/imminent unless something is done immediately. (there are no brownie points for realizing that this is pretty widespread political tactic in it's own right. Bush is using "an axel of evil" and Crusades, while Blair's infamous "45 minutes" have entered permanently to the political lore.). Fourth element is that there must be widespread social support for terrorists/resistance fighters as without it there would be no volunteers for the job. It must be said that the volunteers are rarely combatants/fighters. Their fate is to be weapons not to be soldiers. Finally, the occupying force must belong to a democracy. This is crucial, as democracies are uniquely vulnerable to loss of life of its soldiers and its civilians. Democracies also have freedom of speech allowing for re-assessment of gains due to occupation versus losses due to the terrorism/resistance actions, meaning losses of lives of its soldiers and civilians. In democracy there are usually a number of mechanisms for the change of policy by the elected government.
Like any good research this theory/hypothesis for the origin of the suicide bombers/terrorists/resistance fighters elegantly explains numerous inconsistencies in the suicide bombers phenomenon, which before were considered unexplainable or due to illogical minds of faith crazed Islamic fundamentalists . Suicide bombers were used by Tamil Tigers who's ideology is predominantly atheist Marxist/Leninist. The terrorist attacks in Britain are perpetrated by home grown operatives because the Home Offices own opinion poll suggests that 8-13% of English Muslims are in vehement opposition to occupation of Iraq which, rightly or wrongly, they perceive as augmentation of the presence of Kufr (unbelievers) on the sacred land of Arabic Peninsula in direct contradiction of their deepest religious beliefs. The change of ruling party in Spain immediately following the Madrid bombing and subsequent removal of Spanish forces from Iraq and Ronald Reagan's decision to remove US troops from Lebanon following the attack of suicide fighter on the marine barracks, both show vulnerability of the democracies to the loss of life and loss of perception of safety that suicide missions impose on the society. As far as I know this is the only comprehensive study of the phenomenon of suicide attacks and as such leaves me with a sense of bewilderment why the findings of this research have not been more widely reported by the press.

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