How entirely predictable. Israel's acquisition of nuclear weapons of mass destruction created an imbalance which Iran is trying to redress, while blowing raspberries at USA.
Is it really so difficult to predict? If it isn't, then let's reflect: there are only two possible avenues that lead to this state of affairs: Primo, that Israel obtained nuclear warheads despite West's opposition or that Israel obtained nuclear warheads with West's blessing.
Let's take the first scenario.
After spending much of the fifties and sixties in Cold War, with possibility of nuclear conflict sometimes closer, sometimes less close but always somewhere on the horizon of the subconscious mind, we arrived at the times, when people started to sleep better at night. This corporate sigh of relief was not least due to the signing Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty in 1968. The phantom of "Doctor Strangelow" receding into the half forgotten twilight where night terrors reside. Israel decided that it will develop nuclear weapons and that it is not bound by any obligations towards the world community. It refused to listen to 188 countries that signed the treaty hoping that by limiting the amount of weapons it will limit the probability of them being used. It put it's own interests first, and undermined the universal law of reciprocity in its dealing with the West. In the layman's terms it stuck two fingers at the West and said A: it's our business and B: you are anti-semitic if you dare to object. I do not recall any serious critical opinion expressed in the western media. It is almost as if Mordechai Vanunu's abduction offended our sensibilities more than weapons of mass destruction smack bang in one of the most volatile regions on the earth. I remember a cartoon from before 1st world war where Balkans were represented as barrels full of dynamite on which the solemn heads of state were smoking a peace pipe. Israel, by unilaterally deciding to upset the delicate balance of nuclear deterrents and contr-deterrents have made a world a decidedly less safe place for its friends and its foes alike.
Lets take a second scenario. Instead of ignoring its friends and allies the scenario offers exactly opposite: that Israel got covert or overt blessing for its entrepreneurial spirit and West had no issues with it's program of proliferating weapons of mass destruction in the Middle East. West liked (and likes) Israel so much that it considered the price of OPEC raising oil prices and triggering a near-catastrophic recession of 1973 as a small price to pay for it's protege's feeling of safety and security. West felt that the collapse of non-proliferation treaty was a acceptable price to pay to welcome Israel at the God's table where Olympians able to destroy the planet eat drink and make merry with the 7 (pardon now eight) red nuclear buttons sticking at the centre of the table). Israel must have something of incredible value to offer to West, something so precious that it is worth more than billions lost in catastrophic 1973 recession, worth more than increased risk of proliferation and worth more than loss of good will of numerous countries in the Middle East. In short: What Israel offered in return for approval of it's nuclear program is worth more than West's countries' good. There is no running away from it - we do like Israel an awful lot!
_________________________________________
Technorati Keywords: Israel Nuclear Proliferation Middle East Weapons of Mass Destruction Nuclear Bomb Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty Iran OPEC Recession Oil Crisis Mordechai Vanunu Anti-semitism
Is it really so difficult to predict? If it isn't, then let's reflect: there are only two possible avenues that lead to this state of affairs: Primo, that Israel obtained nuclear warheads despite West's opposition or that Israel obtained nuclear warheads with West's blessing.
Let's take the first scenario.
After spending much of the fifties and sixties in Cold War, with possibility of nuclear conflict sometimes closer, sometimes less close but always somewhere on the horizon of the subconscious mind, we arrived at the times, when people started to sleep better at night. This corporate sigh of relief was not least due to the signing Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty in 1968. The phantom of "Doctor Strangelow" receding into the half forgotten twilight where night terrors reside. Israel decided that it will develop nuclear weapons and that it is not bound by any obligations towards the world community. It refused to listen to 188 countries that signed the treaty hoping that by limiting the amount of weapons it will limit the probability of them being used. It put it's own interests first, and undermined the universal law of reciprocity in its dealing with the West. In the layman's terms it stuck two fingers at the West and said A: it's our business and B: you are anti-semitic if you dare to object. I do not recall any serious critical opinion expressed in the western media. It is almost as if Mordechai Vanunu's abduction offended our sensibilities more than weapons of mass destruction smack bang in one of the most volatile regions on the earth. I remember a cartoon from before 1st world war where Balkans were represented as barrels full of dynamite on which the solemn heads of state were smoking a peace pipe. Israel, by unilaterally deciding to upset the delicate balance of nuclear deterrents and contr-deterrents have made a world a decidedly less safe place for its friends and its foes alike.
Lets take a second scenario. Instead of ignoring its friends and allies the scenario offers exactly opposite: that Israel got covert or overt blessing for its entrepreneurial spirit and West had no issues with it's program of proliferating weapons of mass destruction in the Middle East. West liked (and likes) Israel so much that it considered the price of OPEC raising oil prices and triggering a near-catastrophic recession of 1973 as a small price to pay for it's protege's feeling of safety and security. West felt that the collapse of non-proliferation treaty was a acceptable price to pay to welcome Israel at the God's table where Olympians able to destroy the planet eat drink and make merry with the 7 (pardon now eight) red nuclear buttons sticking at the centre of the table). Israel must have something of incredible value to offer to West, something so precious that it is worth more than billions lost in catastrophic 1973 recession, worth more than increased risk of proliferation and worth more than loss of good will of numerous countries in the Middle East. In short: What Israel offered in return for approval of it's nuclear program is worth more than West's countries' good. There is no running away from it - we do like Israel an awful lot!
_________________________________________
Technorati Keywords: Israel Nuclear Proliferation Middle East Weapons of Mass Destruction Nuclear Bomb Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty Iran OPEC Recession Oil Crisis Mordechai Vanunu Anti-semitism
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